The past two months has been a showdown between the real economy vs the Fed. So far, the Fed is winning. Are there any good reasons to expect that will change in the near term?
The stock market is never wrong…or right. those terms apply only to our expectations
What are the VIX, the Nasdaq and Bonds trying to tell us?
The Economist magazine is famous for publishing magazine covers that prove to be great contrary indicators. If the latest Economist cover is anything to go by, we should expect Wall Street and Main Street to re-couple soon. What we don’t know (yet!) is whether the economy will catch up with the stock market, or whether […]
Nothing, nothing, NOTHING changes sentiment like price. How do we know this? Consider all the of the conversations currently around the possibility that the Fed and Treasury, in the space of 6 weeks, have KO’d the recession. V-shaped recovery baby. I GUARANTEE you we would not be having these conversations if the S&P 500 was […]
Amid huge volatility, records have been broken in the stock market over the past couple of weeks. Is this a buying opportunity or is there more pain ahead?
“Is the selling over?” This is a question nobody can answer with any certainty. But in financial markets we are only ever dealing with probabilities, never certainties. And from my viewpoint, the probabilities strongly favour at least a short-term bounce from here.
Key stock market indices the S&P 500 and NASDAQ breached important levels last week. After a mini shakeout in the short term, I think it is likely markets “melt-up” for the next few months before this bull cycle is done.