Is This What A Market Bottom Looks Like?

Is this what a market bottom looks like?

For anyone that is bullishly inclined – myself included – October on the stock market was a month to forget. Has we seen the market bottom? Will November offer us any respite? That is what I intend to determine in this week’s note.

How bad was October?

by 30th October, the S&P 500 has made 28 consecutive days without back-to-back gains. That was the longest streak since the great depression and was fortunately brought to an end on 31 October. The last three weeks saw a very sharp decline in the stock markets, so is it over?

I will be the first to admit that things got worse than I expected last month. Flexible thinking – and flexible positioning – is required at times like these. It does no good to be overly wedded to a bullish or bearish viewpoint at times of uncertainty, which is why I am trading both sides of the market.

That said, I like a lot of what I see developing and will expound further in this note.

Have we found a market bottom?

If the S&P 500 can hold Monday’s low and get through the mid-terms this week without breaking 2600, we are at least looking at a short-term low to trade heading into the seasonally strong period up to year-end.

S&P 500 bounces off support
S&P 500 needs to hold 2600

There remains the possibility that this is a much more significant low…but let’s just get through next week for now!

The market still needs to break above its 200 day moving average (200 DMA) and a test of this during the week together with a higher low, would be a great set-up to send this market higher post the mid-terms and into December.

Semiconductors looking better

The SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductors Index) popped strongly during the week – exactly what we needed to see from this sector. It bounced hard of what looks like an important support level:

Semiconductors Index bounces off support
SOX bounced off support

If the SOX can hold above ~1120 this will confirm a bottom in this important sector. The semis have been a leading sector for much of the last nine years of this bull market and a turnaround here will provide much encouragement for the market.

Sentiment looks dreadful – this is bullish

People seem terrified. Counter-intuitively, the more frightened market participants are, the closer we are to a stock market bottom.

The excellent website tracks a proprietary “dumb money confidence” index. This Index, which fell to a low of 24 in March 2009, hit just 19 last week. In other words, small investors are more scared today than they were in March 2009! This index dropped briefly to 17 in January 2016…the market jumped 18% in the following 6 months and 25% over the following 12 months.

According to “Since 1999, there have been 31 days, besides today, when Smart Money Confidence was above 70% and Dumb Money Confidence below 20%. All 31 closed higher a month later, averaging 6.5%.”

The point being, lows in sentiment typically mirror a market bottom.

People are chasing downside exposure

Also from sentimentrader:

1) When put option volume greatly exceeds call option volume (i.e. people are seeking to buy protection or downside exposure much more so than upside exposure) markets perform positively on all time-frames following.

When people are hungry for downside exposure we are normally close to a market bottom

2) When people are pouring money into inverse index funds (those funds that perform positively when the market falls), the S&P 500 records a positive performance 2 months later 90% of the time:

When people are hingry for downside exposure we are normally close to a market bottom

These signs of heightened fear/bearishness typically correlate with positive future market performance.

Big sell-offs don’t typically lead to bear markets

Here is an excerpt of s study by the Wall Street Journal. The study followed the ten largest 35-day sell-offs sincw 1953 (the current sell-off ranks #7) and found that stocks ended u bouncing back in 9/10 cases. Only one turned into a bear market.

Big sell-offs don't typically lead to bear markets
WSJ article found that large sell-offs don

No Recession = No Bear Market

Major stock market falls always coincide with economic recessions. I realize the economy does not equal the market, but recessions are too hard for the market to ignore.

My two favourite “economic recession indicators” are Real Retail Sales Growth and Industrial Production Growth (read The Simple Bear Market Predictor for a primer).

Both continue to show a positive trend.

Real Retail Sales (discontinued)
Discontinued time series shown for historical purposes
Real Retail sales continue positive trend
Recessions are accompanied by falls in in real retail sales growth
Industrial Production remains positive)
Recessions are accompanied by falls in Industrial Production

Another economic data point worth studying is the change in the employment rate.

Change in employment remains positive
Change in employment rate is also a good recession indicator

So long as the line in the chart above remains above zero 0 – as it is today – a recession is not imminent.

Now this rosy employment situation won’t last forever! But we will need to see a significant shift in employment from where we are today before the US sees another recession.

Finally, the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator surmises that “the economy remains on strong growth trajectory heading into 2019“.

Leading economic Indicator signals strong economy into 2019
LEI is well above zero and growing, indicating a healthy economy

Interest Rates

Other than the trade war, interest rates are the factor that have most troubled market participants.

The Fed has been raising interest rates which has resulted in a flattening of the yield curve. Now, this is relevant because an “inverted yield curve” (one where shorter term interest rates exceed longer term interest rates) has been a very handy forward predictor of recessions.

In fact, every time over the past 50 years the yield curve has inverted a recession has followed.

As I noted above, the yield curve has been flattening but it is not inverted yet. And even when it does invert, a recession lags by anything from 10 months to three years. So according to the yield curve, a recession is not imminent.

Yield curve says recession is NOT imminent


So those are the things I like the look of in this market…but there are some negatives I need to talk about.

FAANG Stocks

The FAANG stocks – which have been market leaders – have been hammered recently. Apple is the only one that remains above its 200 DMA. This means market leadership may have to come from other stocks/sectors which is not an easy ask given the FAANG stocks are all large market cap.

FAANG stocks have been very weak
FAANG Stocks have copped a hammering


Financials are another sector that remain very weak and another sector whose performance we would ideally like to see improve.

Financials have been weak
Financials (XLF) also remain weak


We are not out of the woods yet. the market needs to survive the mid-terms this week and put in a pretty solid performance this month before we can feel more confident.

That said, I believe the weight of evidence argues for a resumption of the bull market and new highs before this ageing bull finally runs its course.

Accordingly, I am still long-biased in my trading my happy to take strong short setups as well. My trading size is smaller than normal given the current uncertainty – which I expect will be resolved this month. Good trading!